Predict Next Election - Israeli Politics

Demographic Projections

Israel's voter composition is shifting. Growth rates by sector determine the long-term political map.

Secular / Traditional Jewish

43%

~3.0M eligible voters

Growth: ~1.2%/yr

Votes: Likud, Yesh Atid, Labor, B&W, Meretz

Religious Zionist

12%

~840K eligible voters

Growth: ~3.0%/yr

Votes: Religious Zionism, Jewish Home, Likud, Yamina

Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi)

13%

~910K eligible voters

Growth: ~4.2%/yr

Votes: UTJ, Shas (~95% bloc loyalty)

Arab Citizens

16%

~1.1M eligible voters

Growth: ~1.8%/yr

Votes: Hadash, Ra'am, Balad, Ta'al (turnout: 45-65%)

Russian-speaking

10%

~700K eligible voters

Growth: ~0.5%/yr (aging)

Votes: Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud, Yesh Atid

Sephardi/Mizrahi Traditional

6%

~420K eligible voters

Growth: ~2.0%/yr

Votes: Shas, Likud

Projected Voter Composition - Next 20 Years

Projected Bloc Seats (assuming current voting patterns)

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Turnout Simulator

Adjust turnout assumptions for each sector and see how it changes the outcome. Turnout is the single biggest variable in Israeli elections.

Overall Turnout: 68%

Secular Jewish Turnout: 72%

Religious Zionist Turnout: 80%

Haredi Turnout: 90%

Arab Turnout: 50%

Russian Turnout: 65%

Projected Seat Distribution

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Poll Tracker

Latest polls aggregated and corrected for historical bias. Updated automatically.

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Latest Poll Average

Historical Poll Bias - How Much Polls Were Wrong

Poll Correction Factors (based on 2009-2022 elections)

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Combined Prediction

Merging demographics, turnout model, polls, and historical bias into one forecast

Predicted Seats by Party

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Coalition Calculator

Given the predicted seats - which coalitions can reach 61? Click parties to toggle them in/out.

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